C.L. MOLDOVEANU 1,2, O.V. NOVIKOVA 3, GIULIANO F. PANZA 4,5, MIRCEA RADULIAN 1
1 National Institute for Earth Physics,
Bucharest, Romania
2 Department of Earth Sciences, Parma
University, Italy
3 International Institute for Earthquake
Prediction, Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Moscow, Russia
4 Department of Earth Sciences, Trieste
University, Italy
5 Center for Theoretical Physics, SAND
Group, Trieste, Italy
The preparation process of the strong subcrustal events originating in Vrancea
region, Romania, is monitored using an intermediate-term medium-range earthquake
prediction method – the CN algorithm (Keilis-Borok, Rotwain, 1990).
We present the results of the monitoring of the preparation of future strong
earthquakes for the time interval from January 1, 1994, to January 1, 2003
using the updated catalogue of the Romanian local network. The data base
considered for the CN monitoring of the preparation of the future strong
earthquakes in Vrancea covers the period from 1966.3.1 to 2003.1.1 and the
geographical rectangle 44.8 degrees–48.4 degrees N, 25.0 degrees –28.0
degrees E. The algorithm correctly identifies, by retrospective prediction,
the TIPs
for
all the three
strong earthquakes (Mo = 6.4) that occurred in Vrancea during this period.
The cumulated duration of the TIPs represents 26.5% of the total interval
of time considered (1966.3.1–2003.1.1). The monitoring of current seismicity
using the algorithm CN is carried out since 1994. No strong earthquakes occurred
from 1994.1.1 to 2003.1.1 but the CN declared an extended false alarm from
1999.5.1 to 2000.11.1. There is no alarm currently declared in the region
(on January 1, 2003), as can be seen from the TIPs diagram shown in Figure
1.
Key words: earthquake prediction, CN monitoring, Vrancea